Apple still hasn’t officially unveiled its first foldable iPhone, but analysts already seem convinced of one thing: its arrival could quickly reshape a market that has so far been dominated by Samsung and Android manufacturers.
According to the latest IDC estimates reported by Bloomberg, Apple could ship more than 10 million foldable iPhones during the device’s first year on the market. That would be an impressive figure for a product expected to sit at the very top of Apple’s lineup, with a rumored price of around $2,500.
What’s particularly interesting isn’t just the expected sales volume. Apple could repeat something it has already done in other categories: arrive late, then suddenly make the product much more relevant to mainstream consumers.
More than 10 million foldable iPhones in one year
Nabila Popal, research director at IDC, estimates that Apple’s future foldable smartphone could exceed 10 million units shipped during its first 12 months.
That’s hardly a conservative prediction. For comparison, Samsung’s Galaxy Z Fold 8 starts at $1,899, while Apple’s model could cost roughly $600 more.
Such a price would clearly put the device in a category of its own. Rather than immediately replacing the traditional iPhone, it could create a new premium tier above the Pro models.
Rumors have also repeatedly mentioned the name iPhone Ultra, although Apple has obviously confirmed nothing yet.
Apple could quickly capture 40% of the market
The forecasts become even more interesting when looking at the wider market. IDC believes Apple’s arrival will significantly boost foldable smartphones in 2026, while the global smartphone market faces a particularly difficult period.
IDC currently expects global smartphone shipments to fall 13.9% in 2026, to around 1.09 billion devices. Foldables are an exception, with the research firm forecasting growth of around 20% during the year.
Looking further ahead, Apple could account for 40% of global foldable smartphone shipments by 2027.
Counterpoint Research is optimistic as well. Its projections suggest Apple could capture around 25% of the foldable market in 2026, while Samsung could fall from 40% in 2025 to roughly 32%.
There is an important distinction between these estimates: Counterpoint is looking at calendar year 2026, while IDC’s 10 million figure covers the first 12 months after launch.
An iPhone that could almost turn into an iPad mini
Apple is expected to choose a book-style design, rather than a clamshell format similar to the Galaxy Z Flip.
Reports circulating over recent months point to an inner display of around 7.8 inches, paired with an outer screen close to 5.5 inches. When unfolded, the device would therefore feel more like a tiny iPad than a conventional iPhone.
Thinness could be another major selling point. Some estimates suggest roughly 4.5 mm when unfolded and 9.5 mm when closed.
The real challenges are obviously the hinge and, above all, the visible crease in the display. Apple is entering this category years after Samsung. That delay will be difficult to justify if the final product comes with the same compromises seen on earlier foldables.
The price may not be as big a problem as it seems
A $2,500 smartphone is undeniably expensive. Still, I don’t think price will necessarily be Apple’s biggest obstacle.
This first-generation model doesn’t appear designed to reach the enormous volumes of traditional iPhones. Instead, it looks more like a technology showcase, targeting customers already comfortable buying the most expensive Pro Max configurations.
Availability may actually become the bigger issue. Ming-Chi Kuo previously suggested relatively limited production during the first few months, with only 7 to 8 million units assembled in the second half of 2026. Strong demand could therefore quickly result in shipping delays.
A launch that could redefine foldables
Samsung has spent years refining the foldable smartphone concept. Google, Motorola and several Chinese manufacturers have also helped mature the category. Yet foldables remain a relatively small part of the market.
Apple’s arrival could be the moment when they stop being seen as technological curiosities.
From my perspective, that is the real story behind this iPhone. Ten million units would already represent a commercial success, but its true impact may be measured by how the rest of the industry reacts. If Apple gets the launch right, foldables could become the next major battleground in the ultra-premium smartphone market.
Frequently asked questions
When could the first foldable iPhone be unveiled?
Apple has scheduled its “Surprise and shine” event for September 9, 2026. The first foldable iPhone is among the major products expected.
How much could the foldable iPhone cost?
Current estimates point to a price of around $2,500, although Apple has not announced official pricing.
How many units could Apple sell?
IDC estimates Apple could ship more than 10 million units during the first 12 months.
What could it be called?
The names iPhone Fold and iPhone Ultra are currently being discussed. Neither has been confirmed.
Will Samsung remain the foldable market leader?
The balance could change quickly. IDC estimates Apple could reach 40% of global foldable shipments in 2027.
